The Future Has Arrived! Now What?

Michael Hedges May 17, 2018 Follow on Twitter

Through this entire century the media drumbeat has proclaimed, rather perniciously, the inevitable transition from analogue to digital forms as something approaching metaphysical bliss. Freed from analogue leash people will have more choice, more time and more sharing. Of course, what they got were hungry alligators in the media garden.

The big day has finally arrived. At long last more than half (50.9%) of UK radio listening hours come from digital platforms, according to the first quarter (Q1) RAJAR audience estimates released this week. Digital platform listening has effectively doubled since the beginning of this decade. The Guardian (May 17) went so far as to credit the Amazon Echo smart speakers. Listen carefully, that sound is actually a bit more of the same.

Overall listening in the Q1 national survey increased 1.9%, unusually high for the January-March period. Listening to BBC channels, on aggregate, dropped to 51.9% reach share from 52.8% in Q1 2017 and 54.1% in the same period in 2016. The reach share for BBC national channels, on aggregate, fell to 44.6% from 46.1% in 2017 and 46.6% in 2016. BBC local stations were up, taken together, to 7.3% reach share from 6.7%.

Commercial radio broadcasters raised their national reach share to 44.9% from 44.6%, year on year. National commercial channels, on aggregate, continued to increase reach share; 17.5%, highest ever, from 16.0%. And local commercial stations continue to be cannibalized, falling to 27.4% reach share from 28.6%. The “other” category spiked to 3.2% reach share, highest in three years.

Top ranked nationally was BBC Radio 2, again, dropping to 17.6% reach share from 18.3% one year on. BBC Radio 4 also took a hit, falling to 12.0% reach share from 12.5% but keeping second place. National commercial channel Heart held third place, dropping to 5.7% reach share from 6.3%. Much derided BBC Radio 1 held 4th place, unchanged at 5.6% reach share. The Capital national commercial network held 5th place, lower at 3.7% reach share. (See RAJAR national radio audience trend chart here)

Most of the remaining national or quasi-national channels - more than 40 of them - were either up a tad or down a tad. Notable exceptions were BBC sports channel Five Live, down to 3.1% reach share from 3.6% year on year, and commercial channel Radio X, up to 1.2% reach share from 0.9%. Fifteen commercial channels and two BBC channels drew 0.3% reach share or less.

The RAJAR results for the London radio market reflected much the same trends. BBC Radio 4 - 1st place - and Radio 2 - 2nd place - were both noticably lower in reach share; Radio 4 down to 14.4% from 15.6% one year on, Radio 2 down to 10.7% from 12.0%. Commercial talk station LBC 97.3 placed 3rd, down a tad. Heart London moved to 4th place, 4.9% reach share from 4.4%. National commercial channel Classic FM jumped to 5th place, 4.7% from 3.4%. Kiss London was next, up to 4.6% reach share, followed by Capital London, down to 4.4% and BBC Radio 1, up to 3.7%. (See RAJAR London radio audience trend chart here)

How the UK government embraces the crashing of the 50% digital threshold is yet to be seen. It a lot on the table for the next year or so. The 2010 Digital Radio Action Plan, which promised to put the switch-over wheels in motion once the threshold was broken, could take two years (or more) to realize.

But the question remains switch-over to what; DAB or 5G? The greatest growth among digital platforms for radio listening is online and apps, which should surprise nobody. DAB in the UK is a fully mature technology and no broadcaster is excited about a transition to the more robust DAB+ platform, particularly in their accounting departments.

Digital transition has been, and continues to be exciting. Radio broadcasters might be well served to take a lesson from television. Digital TV brought zillions of new channels. The advertising people loved them all. Then, along came Netflix with a different strategy: blockbusters. Everything changed, again.

See also in ftmKnowledge

Digital Transitions

Media's transition from analogue to digital has opened opportunities and unleashed challenges beyond the imagination. Media is connected and mobile yet fettered by old rules and new economics. Broadcasters and publishers borrow from the past while inventing whole new services. This ftm Knowledge file explores the changes. 88 pages PDF (March 2012)

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