It Takes Two; Big Brands Come In Pairs

Michael Hedges April 25, 2018 Follow on Twitter

Marketing experts have long observed the pair phenomenon. Spirited competition between two big brands serves both by expanding the category while forcing lesser rivals to the dragging end of the long-tail. Soft drinks: Pepsi and Coca Cola. Rental cars: Hertz and Avis. There are others.

One after another, streaming video giants Netflix and Amazon Prime recently released subscriber data. Netflix does this with some regularity, Amazon hardly ever. For the first quarter 2018 Netflix reported 125 million subscribers, quoted by Reuters (April 16), gains mostly from international subscribers. In his annual letter to shareholders Amazon chief executive Jeff Bezos, quoted by Variety (April 18), said subscribers to Amazon Prime, which includes the video and music service, number “more than 100 million.”

Netflix and Amazon are quite different companies. Amazon sells all sorts of things, not to forget its massive cloud computing platform. Netflix conforms to Curley’s Law: do one thing. Both continue to lavishly invest in original video content, to the metaphysical delight of studios and production houses everywhere. Both get huge press coverage, to the metaphysical horror at the fringe.

Worldwide revenues for streaming and subscription video on demand (SVoD) services are expected to rise dramatically in the next three to five years, depending on forecaster. Global SVOD revenues could rise to US$84 billion by 2022 from US$35 billion in 2017, said tech analytics company Ooyala, quoted by MediaPost (April 9). SNL Kagen forecast (February 5) SVoD revenues in Europe to hit €5.55 billion by 2022 from €3.18 billion in 2017. There is also a huge demand for SVoD market forecasts.

This would, naturally, give rise to a parade of competitors for Netflix and Amazon Prime Video. In the US there have been several. Hulu - a joint venture of 21st Century Fox, The Walt Disney Company, NBCUniversal/Comcast and Time Warner - is a significant competitor, largely on own-brand TV series and acclaimed films like Handmaid’s Tale. Outside the US Hulu is available in Japan. Comcast has a partnership arrangement with Netflix.

The Walt Disney Company is widely expected to launch a branded SVoD service next year. Analysts are divided; a big producer with a big catalogue would be formidable or another old media house late to the party. Disney chief executive Bob Iger has bid for parts of 21st Century Fox, which would include production studios, the Sky pay-TV business and India’s Star networks. With that transaction further delayed, Sky continues to develop SVoD offerings along side its pay-TV business.

Two years ago there were roars and cheers at a possible tie-up of French media house Vivendi (CanalPlus) and Italy’s Mediaset to build-out a southern European rival to Netflix and Amazon. It lasted ninety days. Today, Vivendi is in hot water over a variety of suspicions and Mediaset struck a partnership with Sky.

In February Danish telecom TDC bid for the Modern Times Group (MTG) Scandinavian TV and production business, including SVoD Viaplay. It quickly fell apart when TDC was acquired by a venture capital consortium. MTG, then, split off its broadcast distribution and production business into a separate listed company.

In the first four months of 2018 Netflix released as many films as the big six US producers combined, noted The Ringer (April 20). Amazon continues to acquire sports rights, US Open Tennis most recently. But Facebook has toyed with live sports and Apple expected to follow in their own good time.

The carbonated soft drink business, worldwide, is still dominated by Coca Cola and Pepsi. But forty years on from the Great Cola Wars, the category is quite different and considerably smaller. Consumers are just not as much attracted to sugary drinks. “We’ve noticed flavored sparkling water is taking over,” said trade publication Convenience Store Decisions (March 26), “but people still crave the classics like Coke and Pepsi.”

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