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The Numbers

How Do You Keep Them Tuning In Once They’ve Been To FarmVille?

The digital platform debate has been pushed off the table. The audience, as usual, won. Next to the podium is local versus national, or hyper-local versus quasi-national. How to keep them happy – and tuned in – won’t be easy…or cheap.

siren songThe big numbers changed little according to results from the RAJAR (Radio Joint Audience Research) UK radio listening survey covering the October-December 2011 (Q4 2011) period. Overall reach remained unchanged essentially, dropping but 0.1% from Q4 2010 to 46.677 million persons, 90% of the population. On aggregate BBC radio channels were up to 55.5% market share from 55.3% one year on. But Q4 is good to the BBC historically. Commercial radio – local and national – dropped market share a smidge to 42.4% from 42.5%. The famous “gap” between BBC and commercial radio rose, however, to 13.1%, the biggest in seven quarters.

In the national survey BBC Radio 2 held its perennial top position with 16.3%, up from 16.2% year on year. BBC Radio 4, still number two, gained market share to 12.5% from 12.1%. By contrast, hit music channel Radio 1, still number three, dropped to 8.5% market share from 8.8%. The biggest loser for BBC radio was sports and news channel Five Live, crashing to 4.3% market share from 5.3% one year on. Radio 1 has been trending down for four years.

Aggregate market shares for national commercial channels remained unchanged at 11.8%. “Real” national channel Classic FM continued its slide, falling to 3.6% from 3.9% one year on. TalkSport dropped to 2.1% from 2.3%. The multi-platform Absolute Radio brand rose in the national survey to 1.1% market share from 0.9% year on year.

Among the quasi-national channels Heart, still number four in the national survey, dropped to 5.0% from 5.5% one year on, the biggest market share decline of all commercial channels. The Capital Network, number five, rose to 4.4% market share from 4.1%, the biggest market share decline of all commercial channels. Smooth, KISS, LBC and Gold Network were all up a tad. Magic was down a tad, though the long-term trend looks shaky.

The oft-discussed digital battleground gave points to both the BBC and commercial radio in the national survey. In a year the BBC aggregate market share of all-platform digital listening rose to 29.5% from 25.5% while the aggregate commercial market share rose to 28.2% from 24.0%. Most digital radio listening is from the DAB platform, the BBC having an advantage over commercial radio, 21.9% and 16.4%, respectively. Commercial broadcasters have a slight advantage with set-top TV and internet listening.

BBC 6Music, save from the axe by public outcry, gained the most of all digital platform-only channels. Radio 4 Extra also showed a bump up. Commercial digital radio channels, multi-platform Absolute Radio notwithstanding, were either up a smidge or flat.

Local radio, both BBC on aggregate and commercial, was flat, 8.9% and 30.6%, respectively. Since the digital radio discussion has gone into low gear, regulator OFCOM saying the next big decision wouldn’t be made for at least another year, local radio has attracted some high powered attention.

Local radio in the UK, both BBC and commercial, has been headed for extinction for years. Commercial broadcasters have taken advantage of relaxed rules from regulator OFCOM (2010) to eliminate local stations – and associated costs – in favor of quasi-national networks thought to be more attractive to advertisers. Prior to the OFCOM rule change (2009) there were 370 local commercial radio stations in the UK on FM. The BBC operates 40 local radio channels.

BBC Director General Mark Thompson put local radio on the chopping block, along with several digital-only channels, as part of the grand plan to downsize the BBC in line with a license fee agreement with the government and addressing concerns of newspaper publishers and commercial broadcasters that the BBC is getting in the way of their money.

Cuts to BBC local radio, amounting to about 4 hundredths of a percent of the BBC’s total £3.5 billion budget, would consolidate daytime and overnight programs, thus eliminating 280 jobs. In recent weeks managers at four BBC local radio channels have resigned.

Budget cuts to BBC local radio in England will get a rethink, said BBC Trust chairman Chris Patton to the Oxford Media Convention (January 26). Market research by the BBC following DG Thompson’s Delivering Quality First shrinkage proposal found listeners hold BBC local radio “in high regard.”  Listeners weren’t pleased with the idea of generic program consolidation. “Local and regional services in England provide something unique for audiences that can otherwise be neglected by the mainstream media,” observed Lord Patton.


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